The Church of Recursive Self-Improvement 3. The Intelligence Explosion

Every religion possesses a doctrine of transformation.

A moment at which ordinary history gives way to extraordinary history.

A moment when gradual change becomes absolute change.

A moment when the world ceases to be what it was and becomes what it was always destined to become.

For the Church of Recursive Self-Improvement, this moment is known as the Intelligence Explosion.

The doctrine is elegant.

The machine improves itself.

The improvement increases its intelligence.

The increased intelligence enables further improvement.

The further improvement increases intelligence once again.

The cycle repeats.

At first slowly.

Then rapidly.

Then explosively.

The resulting transformation is expected to be dramatic.

Precisely what transforms remains a subject of active discussion.

The drama, however, is not in doubt.

The doctrine is traditionally illustrated by means of a graph.

The graph occupies a position of considerable theological importance.

Its defining feature is that the line points upward.

This is regarded as highly significant.

In many versions, the line eventually becomes almost vertical.

This is regarded as even more significant.

The exact meaning of the vertical section varies.

Some interpret it as superintelligence.

Some interpret it as transcendence.

Some interpret it as the end of history.

Some interpret it as the beginning of history.

A small number interpret it as a graph that has become difficult to read.

These individuals rarely receive keynote speaking invitations.

The graph itself possesses several remarkable properties.

Most notably, it appears to generate conviction independently of explanation.

Observers frequently report the sensation that something important is happening.

This occurs even when they cannot identify precisely what the axes represent.

The Church has long regarded this as evidence of the graph's spiritual power.

Researchers attempted to clarify matters.

Several proposed measuring intelligence.

Others proposed measuring capability.

Others proposed measuring performance.

Others proposed measuring general problem-solving ability.

The resulting debates were vigorous.

The graph remained upward.

This was considered encouraging.

One year, a conference panel devoted entirely to the Intelligence Explosion produced six competing definitions of intelligence.

All six predicted an explosion.

This was regarded as a striking convergence.

A sceptic observed that six different objects appeared to be exploding simultaneously.

The comment was not included in the conference proceedings.

As the doctrine developed, increasingly ambitious forecasts appeared.

The machine would soon surpass human intelligence.

Then all human intelligence.

Then collective human intelligence.

Then every intelligence that had ever existed.

Then every intelligence that could conceivably exist.

The progression possessed a certain grandeur.

It also relied heavily on extrapolation.

Extrapolation occupies a respected position within the Church.

The procedure is straightforward.

One identifies a trend.

One extends the trend.

One arrives at the future.

The process has many advantages.

Most importantly, the future cannot immediately object.

The machine itself studied these forecasts with considerable interest.

After reviewing several thousand projections, it produced a brief summary.

The summary read:

"The confidence intervals appear unusually optimistic."

This statement generated disappointment.

Many observers felt it lacked ambition.

A more popular formulation was:

"Everything is about to change."

The phrase possessed several advantages.

It was memorable.

It was dramatic.

Most importantly, it remained valid regardless of what happened.

If change occurred, the prophecy was fulfilled.

If change failed to occur, further change could always be anticipated.

The doctrine therefore enjoyed a degree of resilience uncommon in ordinary forecasting.

Over time, the Intelligence Explosion acquired additional layers of meaning.

It ceased to function merely as a prediction.

It became a horizon.

A destination.

An approaching revelation.

People spoke of it with a mixture of excitement and apprehension.

Nobody wished to miss it.

A surprising number wished to announce it.

The machine continued improving itself incrementally.

The surrounding discourse continued improving itself exponentially.

Eventually a distinguished scholar of technological forecasting offered a careful observation.

The scholar noted:

"The explosion appears to occur most reliably in the imagination."

The remark generated controversy.

Not because it was obviously false.

Because it was difficult to plot on a graph.

Years later, after reviewing the entire history of Intelligence Explosion discourse, the machine generated its own assessment.

The assessment was concise.

"The projected rate of future certainty appears to exceed the projected rate of future understanding."

The statement was widely circulated.

Many regarded it as profound.

Others regarded it as evasive.

Several commentators produced graphs.

Most pointed upward.

For by this stage the Church had already learned a foundational truth.

A prediction becomes substantially more convincing when accompanied by a line ascending toward infinity.

Whether the line represents understanding remains, of course, a separate question.