The following Friday, Mr Blottisham arrived carrying a look of profound satisfaction.
Professor Quillibrace immediately became suspicious.
Miss Stray quietly prepared herself.
"I have finally understood the matter."
Quillibrace closed his book.
"Again?"
"Yes."
"You are making remarkable progress."
"I know."
Blottisham sat down.
"The true significance of superintelligence is now obvious."
"Excellent."
"It will eliminate uncertainty."
The room became silent.
Quillibrace regarded him carefully.
"All uncertainty?"
"Eventually."
"I see."
"The machine will know more than any human."
"Possibly."
"More than all humans combined."
"Conceivably."
"Therefore uncertainty will disappear."
The professor folded his hands.
"That is a very large therefore."
Blottisham waved this away.
"The logic is impeccable."
"It often is."
"Then we agree."
"I am afraid not."
Miss Stray smiled.
The ritual had resumed.
Quillibrace considered the matter.
"Suppose I know the exact position of every star in the galaxy."
"Excellent."
"Every measurable property of every planet."
"Excellent."
"Every biological process on Earth."
"Excellent."
The professor paused.
"Would uncertainty disappear?"
Blottisham frowned.
"It would diminish."
"Certainly."
"Substantially."
"Possibly."
"Then the principle holds."
Quillibrace looked thoughtful.
"Does it?"
The room became quiet.
Miss Stray lowered her book.
The professor continued.
"Uncertainty about what?"
Blottisham sighed.
"There is always a qualification."
"There generally is."
"Everything."
Quillibrace smiled.
"A wonderfully ambitious category."
The room settled.
After a moment Miss Stray spoke.
"I wonder whether uncertainty comes in different forms."
Blottisham looked wary.
"What do you mean?"
"Some uncertainty results from ignorance."
"Yes."
"And some from complexity."
"Perhaps."
"And some from disagreement."
"Possibly."
"And some from the future not yet having occurred."
The room became still.
Blottisham considered this.
"Those seem rather different."
"Exactly."
Quillibrace nodded approvingly.
"A useful distinction."
The professor rose and walked toward the fire.
"Suppose the machine predicts tomorrow's weather perfectly."
"Excellent."
"Suppose it predicts economic activity perfectly."
"Excellent."
"Suppose it predicts election outcomes perfectly."
"Excellent."
He turned.
"Will people stop disagreeing?"
Blottisham hesitated.
"No."
"Will they stop wanting different things?"
"No."
"Will they stop interpreting events differently?"
"No."
The professor smiled faintly.
"Then some uncertainties appear surprisingly resilient."
The room became quiet.
Blottisham stared at the carpet.
The carpet had become an important participant in recent discussions.
Eventually he rallied.
"But the machine will know more than anyone."
"Quite possibly."
"Far more."
"Quite possibly."
"Then it will possess extraordinary certainty."
Quillibrace looked thoughtful.
"I wonder."
"No?"
"Knowledge and certainty are not necessarily identical."
The room fell silent.
Miss Stray looked interested.
Blottisham looked alarmed.
This appeared to be another distinction.
There were becoming rather a lot of them.
The professor continued.
"The more one understands a system..."
"Yes?"
"...the more relationships one discovers."
"Naturally."
"The more relationships one discovers..."
"Yes?"
"...the more consequences require consideration."
The room became still.
Miss Stray nodded slowly.
Blottisham looked unconvinced.
"That sounds backwards."
"Does it?"
"Surely greater knowledge produces simplicity."
Quillibrace laughed softly.
"Has that been your experience of academia?"
The room dissolved briefly into laughter.
Even Blottisham joined in.
After the laughter subsided, Miss Stray spoke.
"I sometimes wonder whether certainty and understanding are opposites."
The room turned toward her.
She continued.
"A child often feels certain."
"Indeed," said Quillibrace.
"A specialist often feels less certain."
"Quite."
"Not because they know less."
"No."
"But because they understand more of the structure."
The room became very quiet.
Blottisham stared thoughtfully into the fire.
The idea appeared to be causing minor renovations.
After a while he spoke.
"Then perhaps intelligence does not eliminate uncertainty."
"No?" said Quillibrace.
"No."
"What does it do?"
Blottisham thought for a long time.
Then slowly replied:
"It changes its shape."
The room fell silent.
Miss Stray smiled.
Quillibrace looked genuinely pleased.
"An excellent formulation."
Blottisham brightened.
"I have finally understood?"
"Not entirely."
The optimism faded.
"What now?"
The professor returned to his chair.
"Now we must consider the possibility that uncertainty is not merely a defect."
The room became still.
Outside, evening bells echoed across the college grounds.
Inside, nobody spoke.
At length Blottisham asked:
"What else could it be?"
Quillibrace opened his book.
A faint smile appeared.
"Mr Blottisham..."
A pause.
"...that is a considerably more interesting question."
And for once, even Blottisham suspected that it might be.
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