On the Acceleration of Improvement — A Conversation in the Senior Common Room at St Anselm's

Several days later, Mr Blottisham entered the Senior Common Room carrying a graph.

This was immediately alarming.

Professor Quillibrace lowered his newspaper.

Miss Stray looked up from her notebook.

Blottisham unfolded the graph with theatrical care.

"There."

Quillibrace examined it.

"A line."

"Not merely a line."

"No?"

"A rapidly ascending line."

"I see."

"The implications are enormous."

Quillibrace studied the paper.

"What are the axes?"

Blottisham looked disappointed.

"Must there always be axes?"

"I have become rather attached to them."

Miss Stray smiled.

Blottisham tapped the graph.

"The important point is obvious."

"Which is?"

"The rate of improvement is accelerating."

Quillibrace nodded.

"How do you know?"

Blottisham stared.

"The line is becoming steeper."

"Indeed."

The professor leaned forward.

"What is becoming steeper?"

"The improvement."

"No."

"No?"

"The line."

Blottisham sighed heavily.

"Sometimes I think you are determined not to see the future."

Quillibrace considered this.

"I am generally content to let the future arrive before commenting on it."

Miss Stray laughed softly.

Blottisham ignored both of them.

"The logic is straightforward."

"Excellent."

"The machine improves itself."

"Yes."

"That improvement enables further improvement."

"Possibly."

"Which enables further improvement."

"Perhaps."

"Which enables still further improvement."

"Conceivably."

Blottisham spread his hands.

"Acceleration."

Quillibrace nodded.

"It is certainly a possibility."

"A certainty."

"A possibility."

"A certainty."

"A possibility."

The exchange continued for some time.

Eventually Miss Stray intervened.

"May I ask a question?"

"Of course," said Blottisham.

"Suppose a student learns to read."

"Very good."

"And reading enables learning."

"Naturally."

"And learning enables further learning."

"Precisely."

"And further learning enables still further learning."

Blottisham smiled.

"Now you understand."

"Yet most students do not become infinitely educated."

The smile faded.

"That is different."

"Why?"

Blottisham paused.

"There are constraints."

"Such as?"

"Time."

"Yes."

"Resources."

"Indeed."

"Competing priorities."

"Quite."

"Fatigue."

"Very much so."

Miss Stray nodded.

"Then improvement appears to depend not only on improvement."

The room became quiet.

Blottisham looked troubled.

Quillibrace observed:

"Many things are self-reinforcing."

"Exactly."

"Few are unconstrained."

Blottisham waved this away.

"But machines are different."

"How so?"

"They do not become tired."

"Convenient."

"They do not lose concentration."

"Useful."

"They do not need holidays."

"A regrettable advantage."

Miss Stray smiled into her teacup.

Blottisham continued.

"The cycle can continue indefinitely."

Quillibrace looked thoughtful.

"Can it?"

"Certainly."

"Why?"

"Because each improvement enables the next."

The professor nodded.

"And does each improvement cost the same amount?"

Blottisham hesitated.

"No."

"Does each improvement produce the same benefit?"

"No."

"Does each improvement encounter the same obstacles?"

"No."

"Then why should the rate remain constant?"

The room became quiet again.

Blottisham frowned.

"It need not remain constant."

"Good."

"It may accelerate."

"Indeed."

"It may accelerate dramatically."

"Possibly."

"It may accelerate explosively."

"Conceivably."

Quillibrace folded his newspaper.

"What interests me is that all these statements are logically weaker than they sound."

Blottisham looked alarmed.

"What do you mean?"

"Acceleration is possible."

"Yes."

"Rapid acceleration is possible."

"Yes."

"Extraordinary acceleration is possible."

"Yes."

"None of these statements tells us what will happen."

Blottisham appeared dissatisfied.

"That seems unnecessarily cautious."

Quillibrace smiled.

"It is precisely as cautious as the evidence requires."

Miss Stray spoke.

"I wonder whether people sometimes confuse a mechanism with a destiny."

The room turned toward her.

She continued.

"If I discover a process that can reinforce itself, I have discovered something important."

"Certainly," said Quillibrace.

"But I have not yet discovered where it leads."

Blottisham considered this.

"Surely the direction is obvious."

"Is it?"

"The process becomes stronger."

"Perhaps."

"Faster."

"Possibly."

"More effective."

"Relative to some criterion."

Blottisham groaned.

"There is always a criterion."

"There generally is."

The silence lingered.

Eventually Quillibrace asked:

"Do you know what I find most curious about acceleration narratives?"

"What?"

"They often describe the speed with great confidence."

"And?"

"The destination with rather less precision."

Miss Stray nodded.

"The future becomes clearer as it becomes less specified."

"Exactly."

Blottisham looked from one to the other.

"You make everything sound uncertain."

Quillibrace reflected for a moment.

Then he said:

"Not uncertain."

"No?"

"Conditional."

The room fell quiet.

Blottisham stared at the graph.

Quillibrace returned to his newspaper.

Miss Stray made a note.

After several moments, Blottisham asked:

"What did you write?"

She glanced down.

"A mechanism is not a prophecy."

The room remained silent.

For once, nobody seemed inclined to improve upon it.