One of the more surprising discoveries made during extended observation concerns the material culture of certainty.
Human beings rarely leave confidence in abstract form.
Instead, they give it objects.
These objects vary considerably across cultures and historical periods.
Some are books.
Some are robes.
Some are graphs.
Some are certificates.
Some are algorithms.
Some are peer-reviewed articles.
Some are strategic frameworks.
Some are dashboards.
Their outward appearance differs enormously.
Their social function is remarkably consistent.
Anthropologists originally classified these artefacts according to their practical use.
This proved misleading.
Their principal function appears not to be informational.
It is ceremonial.
The objects allow certainty to become visible.
A graph displayed during a meeting frequently alters the behaviour of participants before anyone has examined its contents.
A framed qualification may continue generating authority decades after its owner last remembered what was written in the examination.
An impressive equation can postpone disagreement long enough for coffee to be served.
A sufficiently colourful dashboard often produces optimism independently of whatever it measures.
These observations should not be interpreted as dismissive.
The artefacts undoubtedly perform useful work.
The point is simply that their usefulness extends well beyond the transmission of information.
They also communicate reassurance.
The tribe has looked.
The tribe has measured.
The tribe possesses procedures.
The tribe knows what it is doing.
Whether it actually does remains an entirely separate question.
Particularly intriguing is the phenomenon of accumulation.
Humans rarely replace one totem with another.
They add.
An organisation with reports soon develops dashboards.
Dashboards produce key performance indicators.
Key performance indicators generate maturity models.
Maturity models eventually require strategic roadmaps.
Roadmaps produce implementation frameworks.
Frameworks create governance structures.
Governance structures commission independent reviews into framework effectiveness.
The process exhibits no obvious upper limit.
Attempts to identify one have repeatedly resulted in new oversight committees.
Field researchers initially assumed these objects were valuable because they reduced uncertainty.
Further investigation suggests a more nuanced interpretation.
The objects do not eliminate uncertainty.
They domesticate it.
Uncertainty becomes labelled.
Numbered.
Archived.
Referenced.
Presented in twelve-point type.
This appears to produce measurable reductions in collective discomfort.
Individual understanding shows considerably greater variation.
Curiously, the authority of these artefacts often increases with their opacity.
Participants readily admit uncertainty regarding transparent explanations.
They display considerably greater confidence when confronted with sufficiently technical diagrams.
One particularly elaborate framework was observed to contain forty-seven boxes connected by arrows.
Participants unanimously agreed that it represented an integrated approach.
No participant could subsequently explain the arrows.
This did not diminish confidence.
Indeed, confidence appeared to increase.
It has therefore been proposed that complexity itself may function as an important ceremonial resource.
This hypothesis remains controversial.
Mainly because it requires a longer explanatory framework than previous explanations.
Perhaps the most remarkable characteristic of human certainty objects is their tendency to survive changes in belief.
A scientific instrument may later become a museum exhibit.
A sacred text may become a historical document.
A management framework may become tomorrow's case study in organisational failure.
Yet the species does not abandon the practice of constructing certainty objects.
It simply begins making new ones.
This persistence suggests that humans may value the activity of externalising confidence as much as confidence itself.
Field Note 4:
The species demonstrates a persistent tendency to convert invisible confidence into visible furniture.
Field Note 5:
Confidence frequently increases in direct proportion to the number of arrows contained within the explanatory diagram.
Field Note 6:
A sufficiently respected object need not eliminate uncertainty. It need only persuade participants that uncertainty is now under professional supervision.
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