A Conversation in the Senior Common Room (Where the Future Is Suspected of Already Having Happened)
The fire continues, untroubled by its own temporal status. Professor Quillibrace observes it with quiet approval. Mr Blottisham suspects it may already know how it will burn out. Miss Elowen Stray attends to the difference between what has occurred and what can occur.
Blottisham:
Right. I’ve been thinking about this. If the laws of nature are fixed—and everything follows from them—then surely the future is already determined. It’s all… decided in advance.
Quillibrace:
An admirably efficient universe. No need for suspense.
Stray:
So the question would be: Is the future already determined?
Blottisham:
Exactly. Either everything is fixed, or the future is somehow open. It must be one or the other.
Quillibrace:
A binary built on a temporal misunderstanding.
1. The Shape of the Assumption
Stray:
The question treats the future as if it were already something that exists.
Blottisham:
Well, it must exist in some sense—otherwise how could it happen?
Quillibrace:
A bold inference.
What is assumed is:
- that the future could be fully specified in advance,
- that determination applies to events prior to their occurrence,
- and that the future is a structure awaiting access.
Blottisham:
Yes—like a timeline already laid out.
Quillibrace:
A completed script, merely awaiting performance.
2. The Quiet Setup
Stray:
So what has to be presupposed for that to make sense?
Quillibrace:
A rather symmetrical view of time:
- that past, present, and future are ontologically comparable,
- that what is actualised in the past could also be actualised “already” in the future,
- that determination is a property applicable before instantiation,
- that outcomes exist independently of the processes that generate them,
- and that openness and determination are mutually exclusive.
Blottisham:
That seems entirely reasonable. Either it’s fixed or it isn’t.
Quillibrace:
Yes. Provided one mistakes potential for actuality.
3. Three Small Distortions, Working Overtime
Blottisham:
But if we can predict things reliably, doesn’t that mean the future is already set?
Quillibrace:
It means you are confusing constraint with pre-existence.
Let us proceed.
(a) Projection of completed structure
The future is treated as already formed.
- As if it were a fixed sequence awaiting traversal.
- Rather than a field of structured potential.
Blottisham:
So it’s not “there” yet?
Quillibrace:
Not in the sense required for your conclusion.
(b) Reification of determination
Determination is treated as a thing-like property.
- Instead of a feature of constraint within systems.
- It becomes something that applies to events before they exist.
Stray:
So determination is being moved from process to pre-condition?
Quillibrace:
Exactly.
(c) Temporal flattening
Past and future are treated symmetrically.
- Ignoring that the past consists of actualised instantiation.
- While the future consists of not-yet-actualised potential.
Blottisham:
So we’re treating “will happen” like “has happened”?
Quillibrace:
With impressive confidence.
4. If We Keep the Asymmetry Intact
Stray:
So within a relational account, the future isn’t already determined?
Quillibrace:
It is neither already determined nor unconstrained.
More precisely:
- Systems operate under structured constraints.
- These constraints shape how instantiation can unfold.
- They limit and organise possible trajectories.
- Instantiation actualises one trajectory at a time.
Prior to that, there is no set of formed events.
Blottisham:
So the future is… constrained, but not pre-written?
Quillibrace:
A phrase I would reluctantly endorse.
Stray:
So determination applies within unfolding processes, not to a pre-existing timeline?
Quillibrace:
Exactly.
5. The Disappearance of the Binary
Blottisham:
So what becomes of the question—“Is the future already determined?”?
Quillibrace:
It dissolves under inspection.
It depends on:
- projecting completed structure onto the future,
- treating determination as pre-existing,
- flattening temporal distinctions,
- and assuming potential must already be actual.
Remove these, and there is no pre-existing future to be determined.
Stray:
So what disappears is the idea that the future exists in advance as a fixed structure?
Quillibrace:
Precisely.
6. Why It Still Feels True
Blottisham:
And yet… prediction works. Things follow patterns. It feels determined.
Quillibrace:
Naturally.
- Scientific models are highly successful.
- Causal continuity from past to future feels compelling.
- Stable constraints produce reliable outcomes.
- And certainty is deeply attractive.
Stray:
So constraint gives the impression of inevitability?
Quillibrace:
Yes. Reliability masquerades as pre-existence.
Blottisham:
So we mistake predictability for the future already being there?
Quillibrace:
With admirable consistency.
Closing
Blottisham:
So “Is the future already determined?” turns out to be—
Quillibrace:
—a projection of completed instantiation onto structured potential, assisted by a reified notion of determination and a flattened sense of time.
Stray:
And once those moves are undone?
Quillibrace:
The future is not pre-written.
It is re-situated.
A constrained field of potential, continuously actualised through relational processes—shaped by structure, but never existing in advance as the outcomes it makes possible.
Blottisham:
So nothing is fixed… but not everything is possible either?
Quillibrace:
You have, at last, located the middle without destroying it.
Stray (quietly):
Which makes the future neither a script nor a void—but something that becomes, under constraint.
Quillibrace:
Miss Stray, as ever, restores temporal dignity.
Blottisham:
I suppose I shall have to give up the idea that everything is already decided.
Quillibrace:
You may keep the feeling.
Blottisham (hopeful):
Ah—
Quillibrace:
But you will have to relinquish the ontology.
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