Amidst the structural mutations of prediction, there remain rare cases of genuine event anticipation. These are instances where a theory successfully forecasts an event before it occurs, without relying on post-hoc adjustments or internal self-consistency alone.
Classical examples remain instructive. Halley’s Comet returned as predicted by Newtonian mechanics; Dirac anticipated the existence of the positron from the structure of his equations. In these cases, the theory reaches beyond the data available at the time, engaging directly with the temporal unfolding of the world.
However, in contemporary practice, such cases are increasingly the exception. Most predictive claims are retrodictive, internally consistent, or supported by parameter flexibility. Genuine anticipation is highlighted as heroic precisely because it is rare; it is a diagnostic marker against which the drift of prediction can be measured.
The contrast is revealing. Where retrodiction, internal consistency, and parameter accommodation operate largely within theory, genuine event anticipation requires a cut between theory and phenomenon. The theory must engage with the world in a way that cannot be satisfied merely by formal virtue or post-hoc fitting. It is this cut — the link to phenomena outside the theory — that the earlier mutations quietly erode.
Recognising the rarity of genuine anticipation underscores the diagnostic insight: most modern “predictions” are structurally different from classical expectations. They maintain legitimacy without temporally committing to events. By highlighting the few authentic anticipations, the drift becomes visible, making the mutation itself legible.
In the next part, we will examine how prediction functions as a badge of legitimacy, consolidating authority even as the temporal and experiential connection is increasingly optional.
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