When Physicists Say “Prediction”: 3 Internal Consistency as Prediction

As the drift continues, prediction takes on a new, more abstract form: internal consistency. Here, a theory is said to be predictive not because it anticipates phenomena in time, but because it produces outcomes consistent with its own formal structure.

Internal consistency checks are essential for any rigorous theory. They ensure that the rules of the system do not contradict one another, that the mathematics is coherent, and that derivations follow logically. Yet when this formal property is elevated to the status of prediction, the term begins to lose its classical grounding.

The subtle shift is important. Prediction becomes an internal, self-referential exercise. The theory is predictive because it can generate outcomes that do not violate its own internal rules, not because it engages the world in any temporal sense. The claim of anticipation becomes decoupled from experience, observation, and event occurrence.

This abstraction allows theories to maintain credibility even when their connection to empirical phenomena is tenuous. A model that is internally consistent can be lauded for its predictive capacity without ever demonstrating it in the world. The predictive badge is conferred by coherence within the theory rather than by interaction with events.

The phenomenon mirrors patterns seen in explanatory surrogates. Just as elegance, unification, or simulation can substitute for explanation, internal consistency can substitute for temporal prediction. The theory is judged by its own virtues, not by its engagement with phenomena.

Recognising this shift is crucial for understanding the modern practice of prediction. Internal consistency preserves the appearance of forward-looking power while quietly severing the temporal link. It is a diagnostic move: legitimacy is maintained, but anticipatory commitment is optional.

In the next part, we will see how parameter accommodation further abstracts prediction, demonstrating how adaptability and post-hoc adjustment consolidate the drift away from genuine event anticipation.